Friday, December 13, 2024

Conviction, Patience, and Discipline

Obviously since this a investing site, I shouldn't have to stress the importance of money and investing too much here. But sometimes I feel like its important to journal your current thoughts so you can look back at them one day and reflect on the headspace you were in. I cannot stress enough that investing is not only a pathway to wealth; it is a discipline, a mindset, and a tool for creating a life that you want to live. 

But a lot of people don't do well, they make poor decisions that are based on emotion and end up losing too much or being a bag holder. Trust, we've all had losers on our journey to success, that's how you build experience. To really succeed in investing, one must understand its importance, master the psychology behind it with a solid plan, and prepare for what the future might bring. So here are my tips and suggestions to help you master this trade. 

Building Wealth: The Key to Freedom
Wealth is not an end in itself but a means to achieve freedom. Freedom to make choices, freedom to live without financial anxiety, and freedom to focus on what truly matters. 

Contrary to popular belief, luck plays a minimal role in wealth creation. Notice I said wealth creation, if you were born to the millionaire parents in Manhattan, Monaco or Zurich, then you are likely pretty damn lucky on the financial front so congratulations. But for the rest of us who don't come from generational wealth, we can't count on luck to get wealthy. We need to do what works effectively. And the easiest and most reliable way to build wealth is by building equity. Equity represents ownership, and ownership means participation in value creation. Whether it’s owning shares in a company or starting your own business, building equity is foundational to sustainable wealth. But there's plenty of material out there on how to start a business. People go to school specifically for business management or entrepreneurship, much less go to school for portfolio management or equity investing. But that's okay because it is a pretty simple formula. 

What does it truly mean to own shares in a public company? Put simply, it means you are a part-owner of that business. Just as the restaurant down the street has an owner, these large corporations also have owners—you and other shareholders. The more shares you own, the greater your stake in the company's success. As the company thrives financially, so does your wealth, reflecting your share of its growth and profitability. For this reason, I tend to avoid investing in small, obscure firms whose business models I don't fully understand. Owning shares is about more than just potential profit—it's about aligning with companies you believe in and comprehend.

Invest in What You Believe In
Yes, it sounds pretty cheesy but I have found time and time again that this is true. One of the simplest yet most profound investing strategies is to put your money into what resonates with you. 

For example:
Love drinking Coca-Cola daily? Buy shares of Coca-Cola.
Can’t stop raving about your Tesla Model 3? Consider investing in TSLA stock.
Appreciate the innovation behind your iPhone or MacBook? Invest in AAPL.

When you invest in things you understand and genuinely value, it becomes easier to stay committed, even during volatile market periods (which occur often). If you invest in only what you believe in, it creates conviction, and a lot of times I have noticed people have made millions because they had conviction and were sure of something. 

To make this personal, I have always been into tech innovation, its one of the reasons I invested so much in QQQ, PLTR or AAPL. When we had a huge market downturn in 2022, tech shares were ravaged. For me though, I was so convinced that the future would be tech heavy anyway that I invested a lot in QQQ and PLTR because I simply saw these reduced share prices as amazing buying opportunities. And they were. This obviously required a lot of discipline to buy when everybody else was selling. But discipline is a big part of it. Discipline and timing. 

Timing Your Purchases
With investing, timing is crucial. Timing your investments can make a significant difference. 
When is the worst time to buy? When you're caught up in "market FOMO"—the fear of missing out. This emotional reaction often leads to impulsive decisions, like buying a stock at an all-time high simply because everyone else is doing it. Chasing what's currently trending or most talked about is a risky game.

Take the GameStop frenzy as an example. At its peak, the stock hit an intraday high of $480—nearly 190 times its low of $2.57 just nine months earlier. During that time, random acquaintances were reaching out to me, asking if I was buying in. My response was simple: "When was the last time you went to a GameStop, or even played a video game?" Their lack of connection to the business highlighted a troubling trend—they were treating the stock market like a casino, not an investment tool.

As a result, many of them lost significant amounts of money. The stock market can be wildly irrational in the short term, driven by hype and speculation. However, over the long term, it tends to correct itself and rewards those who approach it with patience, discipline, and a focus on fundamentals.

So when is the best time to buy stocks or ETFs that you like? Red days. When markets dip, opportunities arise. Use these moments to buy assets at discounted prices. Red days come often when external factors like poor economic data, political pressure, or military conflicts spook the markets. That is when you buy. To take advantage of these opportunities, consider automating your investments with limit orders. A limit order allows you to set a predetermined price at which you want to buy a stock, ensuring disciplined buying without the need for constant monitoring.

Let me share a recent experience with you. I've been steadily accumulating shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), driven by my belief in its potential to thrive as a Bitcoin treasury. This is an investment I plan to hold for at least a year, if not longer. That said, I’m fully aware of the high volatility associated with both MSTR and Bitcoin—prices can fluctuate wildly in the short term. Despite this, I remain confident and comfortable holding this stock as a long-term investment.

Last month, I noticed MSTR was trading at $475, an all time high for them. I decided that if it dropped 20% to around $380, I would buy it so I entered an limit order to purchase. Sure enough, a few days later, the market experienced a sell-off, and my limit order kicked in, automatically purchasing MSTR shares for me at $380. Within days, the stock rebounded to over $400, and I was pleased with the price I’d secured.

Has it dipped below $380 since? Yes. But I’m okay with that because I understand the stock's volatility. If it drops to $300, I’ll buy more without hesitation. Why? Because I have strong conviction that MSTR will be worth significantly more in a year.

This strategy works because I approach investing with conviction, patience, and discipline. Conviction keeps me focused on the long-term potential of my investments. Patience allows me to wait for the right buying opportunities, and discipline helps me stick to my plan during volatile times. That said, buying during red days requires emotional resilience. It’s not easy to buy when everyone else is selling. Self-doubt will creep in as you question your decision to go against the herd. But this contrarian approach—buying when others panic—is a proven strategy for many successful investors.

Does It Always Work? Of course not. No strategy is foolproof, and there are times when investments don’t pan out as expected (still waiting for AMD to bounce back). However, I’ve been surprised by how often this method has worked for me personally for stocks I am comfortable holding for a longer term. The key is to stay calm, make informed decisions, and capitalize on opportunities when emotions drive others to panic. Over time, this approach can turn market volatility into your greatest advantage.

Balancing Discipline and Enjoyment in Investing
Investing is a long-term game that demands patience and discipline, but it’s important to remember that life is meant to be lived. Financial freedom loses its meaning if you’re too focused on wealth-building to enjoy the present. Striking a balance between investing for your future and enjoying the moment is not only fulfilling but also sustainable.

I personally believe the balanced approach, 40 Days vs. 40 Years is good to follow. Its pretty simple. When you have an extra 10k to spend...

Spend Half Like You’ll Live for 40 Days 
Use half of that 10k to create meaningful experiences. Invest it in something that brings you joy—a vacation, a weekend getaway, a memorable dinner, something that you will remember when you're a wrinkly and old. These moments of happiness and relaxation recharge you, improve your mental health, and remind you why you’re working so hard in the first place.

Invest Half Like You’ll Live for 40 Years 
Allocate the other half toward securing your financial future. Consider investing in QQQ, TSLA, AAPL, or other stocks and ETFs that align with your long-term goals and growth strategy. Your future self will thank you. 

This approach will help you avoid burnout, enhance your perspectives, and just make your life more enjoyable. By embracing this mindset, you’re not just building wealth—you’re creating a life you love living. Your investments secure your future, while the experiences enrich your present. 

Preparing for the Uncertain Future
The world is in a constant state of change, and right now, much of the conversation revolves around artificial intelligence. AI is reshaping our future, offering immense opportunities while also sparking fear and uncertainty. Many roles in the corporate world are being redefined—or even replaced—by AI technologies.

What happens when driverless cars become the norm in Manhattan? What will happen to all the professional? Could robots eventually take over jobs as bartenders, cleaners, or landscapers? Will cashiers be required as this technology evolves? And as quantum computing advances, how might it revolutionize everyday life? These questions underscore the profound transformations on the horizon, challenging us to rethink the nature of work and the skills needed in this rapidly evolving landscape.

This should serve as motivation to research and invest more than ever. Traditionally, building wealth started with knowledge—and while knowledge is still the most powerful asset you can own, its role has evolved. In a world where tools like ChatGPT and YouTube make information readily accessible, ignorance is no longer an excuse.

However, it's crucial to recognize that these tools primarily solve problems we already understand. The ability to adapt, innovate, and create remains uniquely human. ChatGPT might explain today’s accounting rules in detail, but can it develop entirely new frameworks for a field that doesn’t yet exist? Perhaps not.

One thing is certain: as new challenges and industries emerge, tech companies will be at the forefront, driving innovation and delivering transformative solutions. By staying informed and investing wisely, you can position yourself to benefit from these advancements. While it's impossible to predict exactly which companies will lead the charge, many of the frontrunners are—or will be—listed on the Nasdaq. A simple way to gain exposure to this wave of innovation is through ETFs like QQQ, which track top tech-driven companies shaping the future.

That’s exactly the approach I’ve taken and plan to continue. I focus on buying individual firms I have strong conviction in, like PLTR or MSTR, and ETFs like QQQ and ARKB, especially during market dips. This strategy not only aligns with my beliefs but also positions me for long-term growth.

Anyways, that's it for now. Happy Investing. Good luck.