Inflation and this market

Inflation seems to be a concern nowadays. I recently read that 77% of Americans polled fear rising inflation due to recent Fed policy and the massive printing of money that has taken place with the stimmies. President Biden seems to be prepping another round or two of stimulus and infrastructure spending as well. With all this money being printed, it really shouldn't surprise anyone that many are starting to fear (panic) inflation. 

Going back the last 15-20 years when I started following the markets, I remember 2005 was the first year of noticeable inflation "panic" (pre-2008 banking crisis of course). The year 2005 showed us relatively high inflation which the federal gov't presented at 3.39%. That was the official figure, if you're old enough you may remember that 2005 gave us massive inflation due to Hurricane Katrina and a huge rise in oil and gas prices. Oddly, the 3.39% doesn't seem that bad but we did see gas prices surge from 2.00 to 3.00 a gallon. Many economists don't agree or trust the federal government's official numbers and therefore calculate their own figures. One of those economists is Walter Williams of Shadowstats and his published inflation numbers tend to seem a bit more accurate (for 2005 his method pointed to 8% inflation). 

Now in 2005, the Dow finished negative at about -1% even though we had very high inflation. Its still widely believed that stocks are still a good hedge against inflation because, in theory, a company’s revenue and earnings should grow at the same rate as inflation. But history shows this isn't always the case. 

Regardless, inflation fears will probably cause people to flee cash and get into other assets, whether its the stock market, bitcoin, or real estate. I'm betting on the fed's planned inflation of causing at least some pump cycles into the Dow and Nasdaq in 2021. I think inflation could be okay for this market, but if we get a case of stagflation (high inflation combined with high unemployment) in the next year, then gold will be the play for me. We'll see. 

2021 Q1 Thoughts

Today is the last Friday of this Q1 and wow, it's been an eventful quarter. The nice rips we had in January and February, followed by the madness that followed with Gamestop (stay away) and all the other meme stocks was wild. We saw a massive tech pullback in mid February that really didn't bottom until March 8th and that had me sorta worried, it probably humbled a lot of new investors... they learned stonks don't always just go up. 

Fortunately for me I had some nice day trades & weekly swings of TQQQ, SQQQ, and TSLA this quarter which gave me some meaty realized gains and helped me reinvest in some long term positions I like.

But unfortunately, Q1 as a whole has not been great though for me. After an amazing 2020 which saw my rate of return at 65% (an annual return I didn't think I would ever achieve), I am down 8% since the year started on my entire portfolio due to the tech pullback and my failure to predict the bottom.... whoops.  

That's all in the past now.. the question is where are we headed. Historically, September and February have always been known as awful months, these last 2 were no exception so I guess the market forces are still somewhat intact. If the past is any indicator of the future then it should be pointed out that April historically has always been the best month for the market. I expect more kangaroo market movement in Q2 where we rip maybe even 10% in April followed by a 5% pullback in May (sell in May and go away). In the meantime I am still bullish on the Nasdaq and expect tech to recover sooner than later back to our early February highs. 

If Biden's plan for vaccines works out, we might even see a return to somewhat normalcy shortly. Would be nice, I can't wait to put those f_cking masks away in a drawer and never see them again 😎 

PRNT: 3D Printing ETF to pay for my 3D home?

PRNT tracks a tiered, equal-weighted index composed of stocks that are directly involved in 3D printing and 3D printing-related businesses.

I recently saw a video about 3D printed houses and although I've known of this technology's capabilities for a while, I finally saw a house go up and be sold on CNBC. This might be a thing... houses in the US are generally of inferior quality made from plywood and cheap plastic siding. 3D printed homes made from concrete (or a concrete/recycled plastic mix) would be way cheaper and quicker to put up and might solve the looming housing crisis in this country. 

It might also send the price of real estate way down BUT the companies who build these 3D homes would become pretty rich. Imagine buying a home plan online on Amazon or Zillow with custom finishes and a week later its built and ready for you. Pretty incredible but feasible now with this technology. Check out the impressive video below...

3D Print House Video

Now onto the ETF... as of right now there isn't a publicly traded company that builds these 3D homes. But one day there will be, and when it is... it will be incorporated into this ETF. Who knows maybe there will be a dozen companies who do this, but regardless this ETF is an investment into the idea and the tech for now.

I bought this recently at $37.68 (currently at $37.85). This is a long term hold for me. 

ARKG or CRSP to get into genomics?

The ARKG ETF is an exciting investment vehicle that focuses on companies at the forefront of the genomics industry. Its largest holding, CRISPR (ticker: CRSP), is a Swiss-based company that is pioneering developments in gene-editing technology, with the potential for commercialization on the horizon.

The implications of gene editing are profound, with scientists suggesting it could transform fields ranging from medicine to agriculture. There's even the possibility of editing the genetic makeup of entire species, which is as daunting as it is fascinating. The scenario where affluent individuals use this technology to combat aging or engineer 'designer babies' isn't far-fetched. It echoes the way people invest in bespoke traits for their pets.

On a personal note, I've taken a significant position in both the broader ETF and CRISPR's stock itself. I entered ARKG at $103, and it's currently at $93, while CRISPR, bought at $128, has climbed to $134. I’m in this for the long haul, hopeful that by the time I reach 50, these investments will have soared, potentially funding my own leap into immortality through gene preservation. Time will tell!

CQQQ: Chinese Tech play

The Guggenheim China Technology ETF (ticker: CQQQ) represents my streamlined strategy for investing in Chinese technology. Over the past few years, keeping up with the constant emergence of new "______ of China" companies—like NIO, billed as the Tesla of China, Alibaba as Amazon's counterpart, and iQiyi as the Netflix equivalent—has proven to be quite taxing. My investment journey in these up-and-coming Chinese tech stocks has seen its fair share of hits and, admittedly, more misses, leaving me weary of the speculative nature inherent in these investments. The challenge of discerning successful ventures in China is exacerbated by the considerable hype surrounding their burgeoning startup ecosystem.

Although I hold reservations about the practices of the Chinese government and its business ethics, it's hard to overlook China's accelerating influence on the future global economy. Chinese technology companies are expanding rapidly, and the CQQQ ETF offers exposure to these firms in a manner akin to how the QQQ tracks leading U.S. tech companies. As the world's technological battlegrounds evolve, it's likely that firms from Shenzhen could emerge as formidable challengers to Silicon Valley's dominance.

CQQQ is a long term buy and hold. 

PLTR: Why I like this stock

In my view, Palantir (ticker: PLTR) currently presents an excellent buying opportunity, particularly in the $23-25 price range. This company, which nearly hit the $40 mark in late January, has seen a significant pullback amid the recent downturn in the tech sector. Additionally, Palantir's CEO has publicly criticized Wall Street for its short-term outlook, further underscoring what I see as the stock's strong value proposition. I capitalized on this by acquiring shares at $18.30 last November and again recently at $25.00.

Palantir stands out not just as a meme stock, but as a fundamentally robust company steered by highly skilled tech experts. With government surveillance on the rise, Palantir is well-positioned to play a crucial role in this expanding market.

Good luck.