February 2025 has been an absolute wild ride. We started the month with market euphoria — the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were at or near record highs, and stocks like Palantir and HIMS were flying incredibly high. At one point, PLTR was trading over $125.
But things have changed quickly. Economic fears have pulled us back quite a bit. Looking at the S&P 500 and Nasdaq charts (see below), you can see we’re experiencing some real pain.
Even BTC has dipped below $80,000 which signals we are officially in a bear market for crypto.
Not even Nvidia's stellar earnings report last week was enough to reverse the broader market’s downward trend.
Why are we falling so much?
I think it's a combination of factors causing this short-term pain and uncertainty. Let’s break them down.
1. The Tariffs
Love him or hate him, you can’t deny that Trump is an active president. Unlike his predecessor, Trump is constantly moving, negotiating, and making headlines. He’s been working to end physical wars, but he’s also potentially starting new trade wars.
His "America First" policies are spooking global markets, especially with his threats of new tariffs on the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China. If you buy imported goods from any of these places, you’re likely to pay more.
The full impact on inflation is unclear. European carmakers, for example, have spent decades preparing for these scenarios and already have manufacturing facilities in the US. That may soften the blow — but time will tell.
2. Unemployment
There are rumors that the job market is getting tougher, especially in tech. A lot of unemployed IT workers are saying they can’t find new roles. Personally, I think much of this is a pandemic-era correction.
During COVID, companies took federal money and went on hiring sprees, overpaying for talent and creating unnecessary roles. Now, they’re cutting the fat — letting go of non-essential employees and redundant positions.
On top of that, AI has stepped in to replace lower-end jobs. Companies no longer need to pay an analyst $100K to take meeting notes — software tools (like Microsoft's Copilot) do it better, faster, and cheaper.
What About DOGE?
There’s also concern about DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency — not the crypto!). This initiative aims to cut government jobs to reduce spending. As of November 2024, the federal government employed about 3 million people, or 1.87% of the US civilian workforce (per BLS data).
If DOGE slashes even half those jobs, that’s 1.5 million people hitting the unemployment line. That would definitely show up in the data — and freak out the markets.
3. Lingering Inflation
Tariffs could add to inflation, but domestic costs — especially groceries and insurance — remain stubbornly high.
Official data shows that US inflation edged up to 3% in January 2025, compared to 2.9% in December 2024, slightly above market forecasts. That’s not great.
- Energy costs rose 1% year-over-year (the first increase in six months)
- Used car prices rebounded
- Transportation costs accelerated (up 8%).
New vehicle prices fell, but only slightly.
All in all, this paints a picture of sticky inflation — higher prices across essential categories that make life expensive for everyday Americans. This is not great news for investors.
4. Stagflation
Yes, this is the scary word no one wants to hear: stagflation — a toxic combo of high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant economic growth.
I’ve personally never lived through stagflation, but if you read economic history, you’ll know it’s a nightmare scenario for both businesses and investors.
If the word starts getting thrown around more, expect even more selling pressure in the stock market.
My Take
Markets tend to be most bearish right after reaching new highs, and that’s exactly where we are.
It’s okay for the market to be skeptical right now. As Warren Buffett famously said:
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
Right now, there’s fear and panic everywhere, which — to me — signals opportunity.
What This Means for Investors
Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon?
This recent pullback might actually force the Fed's hand to cut rates again. Lower rates would be bullish for equities, especially growth stocks.
Buy the Dip?
Yes — but focus on great companies with strong revenue growth, earnings power, and expanding margins. These current prices are gifts if you’re thinking in years, not months.
Some of my personal favorites that fit this category include:
- Palantir (PLTR)
- Nvidia (NVDA)
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Apple (AAPL)
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Microsoft (MSFT)
These are all companies with strong fundamentals, long-term growth potential, and plenty of room for margin expansion.
Inflation — Don’t Trust the Noise
One final thought — a lot of inflation data comes from sentiment surveys. And I personally believe those surveys are politically polluted.
Plenty of economists with Democratic ties want Trump to fail, so inflation sentiment skews worse than reality. I don’t pay much attention to that noise.
Trump has time and has proven in the past that his unusual, often chaotic, negotiation tactics can be surprisingly effective. He also knows that for his approval ratings to stay high, he needs the market to perform well.
Final Verdict — This Is a BUY THE DIP Moment
Stay calm. Stay focused. This is what long-term investing is all about.
History shows us that the market always recovers — and this time will be no different.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
— Warren Buffett